Title: Transmission modelling and health systems: the cases of tuberculosis and COVID-19 in India

Speaker: Dr. Sandip Mandal, ICMR

Abstract: Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for addressing policy relevant questions in public health. The robustness of modelling depends fundamentally on the data available: not just its quality, but also its appropriateness for the modelling question being addressed. In this talk I will give some examples of how the available data were used to estimate the impact of a tuberculosis (TB) control program in India, or to design intervention strategies to reach WHO goals for ending TB. Even in situations where data is sparse, mathematical modelling can still provide helpful insights for public policy. I will illustrate some applications of modelling using limited data, for prioritisations of vaccination or projecting future waves of the recent COVID-19 pandemic in India.